Current Energy Disruption

12.04.2026

IGA Capital Energy Report

Based on the data from the recent conflict and infrastructure attacks (primarily from late March to mid-April 2026), here is a calculated breakdown of the global energy output disruption.

1. Global Oil Supply Disruption

The combined impact of the physical infrastructure damage and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created the largest energy supply shock since the 1970s.

• Total Crude Production Disrupted: Approximately 10 million barrels per day (mb/d) have been removed from the market due to direct strikes on facilities and the inability to export through the Strait.

  • Calculation: Total global production is roughly 100–102 mb/d. A loss of 10 mb/d represents a ~10% disruption to total global crude output.

• Export Chokepoint (Strait of Hormuz): While not all production is "destroyed," the closure effectively blocks 20–21% of total global petroleum consumption from reaching world markets.

• Specific Infrastructure Loss:

  • Saudi Arabia (Petroline): Strikes on pumping stations and fields (Manifa/Khurais) caused a loss of 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d).

  • Refining Capacity: Over 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the Gulf (Ruwais, Ras Tanura, Mina Al-Ahmadi) is either shut or operating at minimal levels due to damage or lack of export outlets.

2. Global Natural Gas (LNG) Disruption

The destruction of infrastructure at Ras Laffan (Qatar) and South Pars (Iran) has significantly impacted the natural gas sector.

• Global LNG Supply Loss: Approximately 20% to 25% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit has been halted by the closure of the Strait.

• Infrastructure-Specific Disruption:

  • Qatar Energy Impact: Attacks on Ras Laffan hit 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. Since Qatar is one of the world's top three LNG exporters, this represents a disruption of roughly 3% to 4% of total global LNG supply from a single facility's damage.

  • Regional Gas Fields: Attacks on fields like Shah (UAE) and South Pars (Iran) have further restricted regional feed-gas, though much of this is consumed domestically.

3. Summary of Disruption by Percentage

Energy Category	Disruption Mechanism	% of Global Output/Supply
Crude Oil	Infrastructure Destruction (Direct Strikes)	~1.5% - 2.0% (Physical loss)
Crude Oil	Total Supply Disruption (Strikes + Chokepoint)	~10% (Market removal)
Refined Products	Global Refining Capacity Impact	~4% (Gulf capacity at risk)
Natural Gas (LNG)	Global Supply Disruption (Strait Closure)	~25% (Seaborne trade)
Natural Gas (LNG)	Infrastructure Destruction (Qatar Strikes)	~3.5% (Physical loss)

Key Vulnerability: The Red Sea "Safety Valve"

To mitigate these losses, Saudi Arabia attempted to boost throughput via the East-West (Petroline) Pipeline to the Red Sea. However, the recent April 8–11 strikes on this pipeline (which damaged pumping stations) have removed an additional 700,000 barrels per day of "bypass" capacity, further tightening the global supply deficit.

Oil Refineries:

• Ruwais, UAE: One of the biggest refineries in the world suffered multiple fires caused by falling debris from air-defense interception, Abu Dhabi’s government said April 5.

• Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia: Saudi Aramco temporarily halted operations at the kingdom’s largest crude processing plant — with 550,000 barrels a day of capacity — after a drone attack in the first few days of the war. The facility has since been restarted.

• Samref, Saudi Arabia: A drone fell on the refinery that’s half owned by Exxon Mobil Corp. on March 19.

• Satorp, Saudi Arabia: Units halted at the 460,000 barrels a day refinery that’s 62.5% owned by Aramco and 37.5% by TotalEnergies after incidents on April 7-8

• Riyadh, Saudi Arabia: SPA on April 9 said that the 120,000 barrels a day plant was one of several that has been attacked “directly affecting exports of refined products to global markets.”

• Bapco Energies, Bahrain: The 400,000 barrel-a-day plant was damaged in an attack last month and declared force majeure on operations that had been impacted.

• Gulf Petrochemical Industries Co., Bahrain: Some operational units caught fire after drone attacks April 5.

• Kuwait National Petroleum Co. and Petrochemical Industries Co. facilities suffered significant damage as emergency and fire response teams worked to contain conflagrations at several sites, KPC said April 5. Those attacks followed hits on KPC’s headquarters.

• Mina Al-Ahmadi, Kuwait: A drone attack caused fire in a number of operational units on April 3. The refinery had also been hit on two consecutive days last month, which had shut some units.

• Mina Abdullah, Kuwait: A fire at the plant was extinguished following a March 19 attack.

• Lanaz, Iraq: Operations were suspended at the plant in the northern city of Erbil last month after a fire caused by a drone strike, Reuters reported, citing unidentified provincial officials.

Gas Facilities

• Ras Laffan, Qatar: QatarEnergy said LNG facilities were hit by Iranian missiles, triggering fires that caused extensive damage, including to Shell Plc’s gas-to-liquids plant. QatarEnergy has declared force majeure on some long-term supply contracts.

• Habshan, UAE: Abu Dhabi suspended operations at the country’s largest natural gas processing facility earlier this month following an attack that sparked a fire.

• South Pars, Iran: Israel attacked facilities at Iran’s giant gas field March 18, with fires causing some units to be taken out of production, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

• Isfahan, Iran: A gas pressure-regulation station and an associated administrative building were targeted in central Isfahan province in US–Israeli attacks, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.

• Shah, UAE: Operations were suspended after an Iranian drone attack on March 16 caused a fire at the massive natural gas field.

• Das Island LNG, UAE: Abu Dhabi plant in the Persian Gulf was operating at low levels due to inability to export via the Strait of Hormuz.

• Ju’aymah, LPG, Saudi Arabia: Affected by fires, impacting exports of liquefied petroleum gas and natural gas liquids, Saudi Press Agency reported April 9.

Oil Production/Flows

• East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia. Drone attack this week targeting pumping station on the conduit that links oil facilities on the Persian Gulf Coast to Yanbu on the Red Sea cut flows by 700k b/d *

• Majnoon, Iraq: The oil field in the south of the country was targeted by an attack, according to a statement from Iraq’s Oil Ministry, which didn’t provide any additional details.

• Shaybah, Saudi Arabia: The 1 million barrel-a-day field in the kingdom’s east has been repeatedly targeted by multiple drones. No damage has been reported.

• Manifa production facility, Saudi Arabia: SPA said April 9 that the targeting of the facility resulted in a reduction of about 300,000 barrels a day of its production capacity.

• Khurais, production facility, Saudi Arabia: Targeting of Khurais led to a reduction of 300,000 barrels a day of its production capacity.

*Saudi Arabia reporting the East West pipeline is repaired.