IGA Capital Weekly Economic Update

April 14, 2025

Market Overview

Markets remain volatile as investors navigate evolving interest rate expectations, persistent inflationary pressures, and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Bond yields rose significantly last week, driven by hawkish sentiment in the Treasury market and ongoing pricing of potential Fed rate cuts through 2025.

Interest Rates & Fed Outlook

→ The Fed Funds Futures market is currently pricing in a series of rate cuts throughout 2025, with the implied policy rate falling from 4.33% today to 3.55% by December 2025.

FOMC Meeting	Implied Rate Change	Implied Fed Funds Rate
May 7, 2025	-0.06%	4.26%
July 30, 2025	-0.40%	3.92%
Dec 10, 2025	-0.77%	3.55%

US Treasury Yield Forecasts

The 10-Year US Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.44%, up 34 basis points over the week, and is now projected to gradually decline into 2026, though expectations remain varied:

Period	Median 10Y UST Forecast
Q2 2025	4.30%
Q4 2025	4.25%
Q3 2026	4.07%

Forward Rate Curves (10Y UST)

The market's forward curve continues to reflect elevated yields over the short term, with gradual easing expected over the next 18-24 months.

Equity Markets

Equity indices posted mixed performance amid rate volatility:

Index	Current	1-Month Change
Dow Jones	40,609	+9.4% YoY
S&P 500	5,363	+10.1% YoY
Nasdaq	17,012	+12.4% YoY

Commodities Snapshot

Commodity	Price	YTD Change
Gold	$3,198	+33.4%
Silver	$31.90	+9.4%
Oil (WTI)	$62.04	-28.3%

Gold remains a standout safe haven asset amid uncertainty, while oil prices remain under pressure.

Real Estate Markets & REITs

Multifamily REITs have stabilized despite higher debt costs, with cap rates widening across major markets. Mortgage REITs continue to offer elevated yields, some exceeding 15%, reflecting credit and interest rate risks.

Yield Curve Update

The yield curve remains partially inverted but is beginning to steepen modestly:

Spread	Current	Change YTD
2s/10s UST	+0.52%	+20 bps
5s/30s UST	+0.75%	+33 bps

Inflation Snapshot

Region	Current CPI YoY
US	2.40%
Eurozone	2.20%
Japan	3.70%

Inflation remains elevated globally, though off-peak highs, supporting the Fed’s cautious approach to rate normalization.

IGA Capital Perspective

Capital markets are entering a phase of recalibration. While the Fed is expected to cut rates gradually in 2025, real yields remain historically high, compressing valuation multiples across real estate, infrastructure, and fixed income assets.

Private credit, structured debt, and alternative funding remain essential for borrowers navigating this tightening environment. IGA Capital continues to position its clients to access liquidity from institutional, development finance, and structured capital sources amid evolving global conditions.

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