IGA CAPITAL: WEEKLY MACROECONOMIC BRIEFING
- Joshua Hawley
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
Structural Analysis: Monetary Expectations and Asset Class Dispersion
Date: Monday, December 1, 2025
I. Monetary Policy and Global Interbank Dynamics
The Federal Reserve's observed stance remains within the established range, with the Fed Funds Rate Effective registering 3.88% as of the reporting date, denoting a minor +2 basis point (bps) appreciation over the prior month [5]. This stability contrasts with the persistent forward pricing of an imminent easing cycle across the interest rate complex.
The derivatives market is systematically pricing in a significant future reduction in the cost of credit, indicating a consensus expectation of monetary accommodation commencing in the near term.
FOMC Meeting Date | Implied Policy Rate | Implied Rate Change |
12/10/2025 | 3.66% | -0.26% |
03/18/2026 | 3.53% | -0.39% |
07/29/2026 | 3.20% | -0.71% |
Global Unsecured Funding Benchmarks
The jurisdictional fragmentation of short-term liquidity costs remains pronounced, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) complex exhibiting deceleration over the monthly period.
Benchmark Index | Rate (Fixed) | Date of Fix | 1-Month Change | Source |
1M Term SOFR | 3.864% | 12/01/25 | -14 bps | [5], [6] |
30d Avg SOFR | 4.05% | 12/01/25 | -17 bps | [5] |
3 Month EIBOR | 3.730090% | 11/28/25 | N/A | [11] |
3 Month EURIBOR | 2.060% | 11/28/25 | N/A | [12] |
II. Fixed Income Structure and Duration Premium
The US Treasury market presents an upward-sloping yield curve, with the longer end compensating investors for duration exposure relative to policy-sensitive short-term rates.
The benchmark 10 Year Treasury Yield closed at 4.04% [5], reflecting a -4 bps decline over the one-month period.
The 2s/10s Spread currently measures 0.54% [8], while the longer-term 5s/30s Spread is observed at 1.09% [8]. This positive carry structure has strengthened, with the 5s/30s spread appreciating by +0.68% YTD [8].
Median analyst consensus for the Q4 2025 10-Year yield remains fixed at 4.10% [7].
III. Macroeconomic Aggregates and Asset Volatility
Macroeconomic performance across the US exhibits moderate annualized growth alongside stable inflation metrics.
Metric | Current Value | Source |
US Annualized CPI | 3.00% | [9] |
US GDP (YoY) | 2.10% | [10] |
US Unemployment | 4.40% | [10] |
VIX (Volatility Index) | 18.06 | [5] |
The VIX index experienced a significant +9.9% increase over the last month to 18.06 [5], signaling a structural increase in implied equity volatility.
IV. Asset Class Returns and Price Action
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices registered marginal to moderate declines over the past month, while the non-fiat metal complex demonstrated high-magnitude appreciation.
Asset Class | Index / Metric | Current Value | Monthly % Change | Source |
Equity (S&P 500) | Index Value | 6,849 | -0.4% | [5] |
Equity (Nasdaq) | Index Value | 23,366 | -2.4% | [5] |
Commodity (Gold) | Price | $4,257.97 | +5.8% | [5] |
Commodity (Silver) | Price | $57.58 | +17.7% | [5] |
Commodity (Oil) | Price | $59.73 | -0.3% | [5] |
V. Digital Assets: Market Structure and Valuation
The digital asset market remains an environment defined by high-magnitude valuation shifts. The spot price of Bitcoin is $84,795.18 as of the November 24, 2025, 16:55Z snapshot [13].
The characteristic high-velocity price action is indicative of a market structure subject to illiquidity and the concentration of speculative capital. The Bitcoin valuation is a function of highly reflexive market dynamics and remains subject to the immediate constraints of capital flows and short-term positioning, lacking the established systemic safeguards and deep institutional intermediation found in sovereign currency systems.
Summary Footnotes
The following table: "1) Fed Funds Future Implied Probability"
Implied Overnight Rate & Number of Hikes/Cuts
Fed Funds - Market Expectations vs. Fed's Dot Plot
FOMC Meeting - Wednesday, December 10, 2025
The following table: "24) Economic Dashboard"
The following table: "13) Forward Curves - Data"
The following table: "8) Bond Yield Forecast - Analyst Estimates"
The following table: "18) US Treasury 2/10s & 5/30s Curve"
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
CBUAE EIBOR Rates (November 28, 2025)
EURIBOR Rates (November 28, 2025)
Bitcoin price data (December 1, 2025, CoinMarketCap snapshot)
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