IGA Weekly Market Update
- Joshua Hawley
- Nov 19
- 3 min read
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
I. Global Liquidity Structure and The Price of Credit
The Federal Reserve's primary intervention mechanism, the Fed Funds Rate Effective, registers at 3.88%, reflecting a 23 basis point (bps) decline over the one-month period [cite: 5, 13]. Market expectations, derived from the futures complex, project persistent monetary loosening through the subsequent year, with the Implied Policy Rate falling to 3.26% by the July 29, 2026, FOMC meeting [cite: 1]. This forward curve structure confirms institutional anticipation of a continued low-rate policy regime.
The US Treasury market reflects this central bank dominance, with the benchmark 10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.13%, having appreciated by 12 bps over the past month [cite: 5]. The Treasury yield curve maintains a positive slope through the intermediate and long durations, with the 2s/10s Spread at 0.53% and the 5s/30s Spread at 1.02% [cite: 8].
Benchmark Index | Current Rate (Term) | Change (1 Month) | Jurisdiction |
1M Term SOFR | 3.96% | -6 bps | United States |
3 Month SOFR | 3.85309% | N/A | United States |
3 Month EIBOR | 3.788360% | N/A | UAE |
3 Month EURIBOR | 2.048% | N/A | Eurozone |
The secured funding environment reflects prevailing central bank policy, with the 30-day Average SOFR standing at 4.00% [cite: 5]. Regional liquidity benchmarks show significant divergence in the cost of unsecured funding: the 3 Month EIBOR registers at 3.788360% (as of November 17), nearly 174 basis points higher than the 3 Month EURIBOR at 2.048% (as of November 17) [cite: 11, 12, 13].
II. Real Asset Complex and Inflation Hedges
The commodity complex saw meaningful price action this week, confirming the market’s ongoing assessment of tangible assets versus monetary policy and inflation risk.
Commodity | Current Price (USD) | Weekly % Change (Document Implied) | Monthly % Change (Historical) |
Gold | $4,065.27 | N/A | -6.2% |
Silver | $50.80 | N/A | -6.4% |
Oil (WTI Equivalent) | $60.10 | N/A | +5.4% |
The Gold price has experienced a significant deceleration over the past month, registering a -6.2% decline [cite: 5]. Similarly, Silver recorded a -6.4% drop in the same period [cite: 5]. Conversely, the energy market exhibits strength, with Oil prices appreciating by +5.4% month-over-month to $60.10 per barrel [cite: 5].
III. Digital Asset Volatility and Deleveraging
The high-beta Digital Asset market experienced significant systemic de-risking over the past week, marked by substantial price compressions and a liquidation of leveraged positions.
Bitcoin (BTC): The asset concluded the week ending November 17, 2025, with a -9.4% loss, with current trading indicating a range near $92,000–$94,000 [cite: 14, 15].
Ethereum (ETH): The Ethereum complex underperformed Bitcoin, registering a -10.6% decline for the week, with current pricing around $3,154 [cite: 14, 15].
Solana (SOL): The asset experienced greater volatility, declining -16.1% for the week, trading in the vicinity of $141 [cite: 14, 16].
This broad-based contraction across ultra-cap assets indicates systematic deleveraging and a flight to liquidity following recent market highs.
IV. Global Equities Performance
Equity markets across major developed and emerging jurisdictions experienced a broad retreat as of Monday's close, reflecting profit-taking and renewed concerns over valuations.
Index | Current Value (Close/Snapshot) | Daily % Change | YTD % Change |
S&P 500 (US) | 6,646.21 (5 Days Ago) | -0.39% (5 Days Ago) | 15.8% (YTD) |
DAX (Germany) | 23,173.05 | -1.77% | 15.72% (YTD) |
FTSE 100 (UK) | 9,552.30 | -1.27% | 15.64% (YTD) |
Hang Seng (HK) | 26,384.28 | -0.71% | 34.45% (YTD) |
Summary Footnotes
The following table: "1) Fed Funds Future Implied Probability"
Implied Overnight Rate & Number of Hikes/Cuts
Fed Funds - Market Expectations vs. Fed's Dot Plot
FOMC Meeting - Wednesday, December 10, 2025
The following table: "24) Economic Dashboard"
The following table: "10 year Treasury"
The following table: "13) Forward Curves - Data"
The following table: "18) US Treasury 2/10s & 5/30s Curve"
Sovereign Annualized CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) EIBOR Rates (as of November 17, 2025)
Euribor Rates (as of November 17, 2025)
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) / 1M Term SOFR (as of November 17, 2025)
Weekly Index Highlights, November 17, 2025 - CFB - CF Benchmarks
Bitcoin and Ethereum market data (as of November 17, 2025)
Solana (SOL) market data (as of November 17, 2025)
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