IGA Capital – Weekly Macro Update

Joshua Hawley
Aug 11
4 min read

"The S&P 500 posted its best week since April, notching a 3.6% gain to reach record heights at 7,758 (up 2.8% on the month). Rallying risk assets were driven by Treasury Secretary Bessent's announcement that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was possible "today or tomorrow," sending crude oil plunging and pulling long-end Treasury yields off their post-2007 highs."

August 11, 2026 Joshua Hawley

Equity Market All-Time Highs: As risk-on sentiment took over, the Nasdaq 100 surged 5.1% (Nasdaq Composite up 2.0% to 26,691) , while the Dow Jones cleared the historic 54,000 level for the first time, closing at 54,036.9. Nvidia led the tech rally with its largest-ever weekly gain in market capitalization as traders re-entered the AI trade on lower oil prices and a cooling labor market. Goldman Sachs' prime desk noted the largest hedge fund short-covering in U.S. equities since November 2020.
Labor Market Contraction: July Nonfarm Payrolls fell by 23k (well below the +80k consensus), with prior months revised down a combined 103k and wage growth slowing to 0.1% MoM. The U.S. Unemployment Rate printed at 4.10%. The labor report reinforced the trend of a softening job market, pushing back market expectations for a potential Fed rate hike out to December.
Energy Shock Relief: Brent crude fell sharply to $74/bbl before WTI crude settled around $79.08/bbl after President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran and reports emerged that a draft agreement regarding shipping lane geography had been finalized with Oman, easing global supply concerns.

Benchmark Financial, Commodity & Asset Snapshot

(Data as of August 10, 2026)

Asset / Benchmark	Current Level	1 Month Ago	3 Months Ago	1 Year Ago
S&P 500	7,758	7,548	7,391	6,355
Dow Jones Industrial Average	54,036.9	52,622.9	49,739.6	44,045.0
Nasdaq Composite	26,691	26,176	26,087	21,316
WTI Crude Oil	$79.08/bbl	$71.66/bbl	$88.12/bbl	$61.35/bbl
Gold	$4,339.06/oz	$4,125.46/oz	$4,738.50/oz	$3,402.51/oz
Silver	$64.01/oz	$59.96/oz	$86.06/oz	$38.28/oz
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield	4.65% – 4.66%	4.56%	4.46%	4.28%
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield	5.21%	5.127%	N/A	4.85%
U.S. Headline CPI (YoY)	3.50%	4.20%	3.30%	2.40%
U.S. Core CPI (YoY)	2.60%	2.90%	2.80%	2.60%
U.S. Real GDP Growth (YoY)	2.10%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Volatility Index (VIX)	15.45	16.06	18.77	16.48

Treasury Yields & Fixed Income Analysis

Treasuries posted their biggest weekly rally since May, driven by diplomatic easing in the Strait of Hormuz and contraction in labor data.

Yield Curve Movement: The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.68% to a mid-week low of 4.61% before settling at 4.65%–4.66% (marking its first weekly decline in three weeks). The 30-year yield eased from 5.23% toward 5.21%. The 2-year yield fell as much as 9 bps intraday to 4.21%.
Yield Curve Slopes: Unwinding front-end rate hike premiums caused the yield curve to steepen:
- 2s/10s Spread: +0.44% (+44 bps).
- 5s/30s Spread: +0.84% (+84 bps).
August Refunding Announcement: The Treasury Department set total quarterly refunding issuance at $125BN (unchanged from May) and maintained coupon guidance "for at least the next several quarters." This decision signals no near-term increase in auction sizes, deepening Treasury's reliance on short-term bills to fund near-term borrowing.

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Expectations

Following Chair Warsh’s July rate hold (which maintained the effective rate at 3.63%), weak labor data removed immediate pressure to hike in September. Furthermore, Warsh has floated a proposal to restructure the Fed's calendar from eight scheduled meetings to six per year.

Divergent Committee Voices: Regional Fed Presidents remain split. Richmond’s Barkin noted a "weak balance" in labor without wage inflation, and SF’s Daly highlighted remarkably stable inflation expectations. Conversely, hawks like St. Louis’s Musalem and KC’s Schmid continue advocating for tighter policy to tame underlying inflation.
Shift in Market Pricing: Swaps markets now price roughly a 44.0% probability of a 25 bp hike at the September 16 meeting (down from ~60% last week) , with money markets pushing implied tightening expectations out to December.

Implied Fed Funds Rates & Schedule:

Current Implied Overnight Rate: 3.631%
September 16, 2026 Meeting: 3.74% (Implied Rate Change: +0.11%)
October 28, 2026 Meeting: 3.80% (Implied Rate Change: +0.17%)
December 9, 2026 Meeting (Year-End): 3.91% (Implied Rate Change: +0.28%)
June 9, 2027 Meeting (Mid-Year 2027): 4.05%

Commercial Real Estate & Agency Debt Pricing

Commercial debt indications eased slightly over the past week as Treasury yields pulled back from their YTD highs:

Benchmark Rates (as of Aug 10, 2026):
- 30-Day Avg SOFR: 3.626% | 1M Term SOFR: 3.645%
- 5-Year Treasury: 4.369% | 7-Year Treasury: 4.508% | 10-Year Treasury: 4.660%
Fannie Mae DUS (Fixed Rate Indicative Gross Rates):
- Tier 2 (1.25x DSCR / 80% LTV): 5-Yr: 5.83% | 7-Yr: 5.81% | 10-Yr: 5.85%
- Tier 3 (1.35x DSCR / 65% LTV): 5-Yr: 5.48% | 7-Yr: 5.56% | 10-Yr: 5.65%
- Tier 4 (1.55x DSCR / 55% LTV): 5-Yr: 5.38% | 7-Yr: 5.46% | 10-Yr: 5.55%
Freddie Mac (Fixed Rate Indicative Gross Rates):
- 1.25x DSCR / 65% LTV: 7-Yr: 5.87% | 10-Yr: 5.84%
- 1.30x DSCR / 60% LTV: 7-Yr: 5.82% | 10-Yr: 5.79%
- 1.35x DSCR / 55% LTV: 7-Yr: 5.72% | 10-Yr: 5.69%

Economic Calendar

This Week

Tuesday, August 11: NFIB Small Business Optimism; Existing Home Sales
Wednesday, August 12: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM); 10-Year U.S. Treasury Auction (1:00 PM)
Thursday, August 13: Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 AM); Jobless Claims
Friday, August 14: Retail Sales (8:30 AM); U. of Mich. Sentiment

Next Week

Monday – Friday: Empire State Manufacturing; Housing Starts; Building Permits; Industrial Production; FOMC Meeting Minutes; S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI; S&P Global U.S. Services PMI.