IGA Capital Weekly Market Update

July 7, 2025

Joshua Hawley

Global Market Summary

Global equities extend gains into July, with the S&P 500 reaching record highs (+5.5% YTD) and the Nasdaq outperforming, driven by strong tech earnings and AI infrastructure expansion. Bond markets usher in a dovish turn: the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield has declined ~15 bps to ~4.25% following softer PCE inflation and reducing real yields . Oil has retraced nearly 20% YTD—Brent around $67/barrel—amid OPEC+ supply increases and moderating Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, precious metals saw gold stabilize near $3,280 after a summer pullback, while silver strengthened on inflation-linked safe-haven flows.

Fintech & Cross-Border Finance

Fintech continues to outperform traditional banking: global revenues rose 21% YoY, now comprising ~3% of total banking/insurance revenues, with ~69% of listed fintechs posting profits. Cross-border payments reached US $212.5 b in 2024, with a projected increase to US $320.7 b by 2030. China’s PBOC may double its Bond Connect southbound quota—signaling deepening integration between Mainland and international bond markets. Visa reported a 13% surge in global cross-border volumes, reflecting strong travel recovery and digital payments adoption.

Oil & Gas

OPEC+ plans to pump an additional ~548,000 barrels per day in August to maintain market share, anticipating demand pick-up, while Morgan Stanley forecasts Brent near $60 in early 2026. U.S. gasoline prices have fallen ~11% year-over-year, currently ~$3.16/gal, benefiting consumers despite OPEC+ expansion. Natural gas production remains at record highs in the U.S., but rig counts are down ~6% YoY, hinting at longer-term supply tightening .

Digital Asset Markets

Bitcoin is nearing record highs (~$109,000), up ~0.8% today, driven by institutional ETF flows and global uncertainty ahead of U.S. tariff announcements. The digital asset space remains robust: BTC dominance stands near ~62.9%, with total market capitalization around $3.43 trillion.

Gold & Real Assets

Gold remains well-supported at ~$3,280 as central banks continue record-level accumulation and amid weak ETF outflows, underscoring a growing divergence between physical bullion demand and paper exposures . Supply-side stress and potential BRICS-driven commodity settlement frameworks further support bullion’s role as a strategic reserve asset .

IGA Perspective: Macro Positioning

IGA Capital views the current macro landscape as highly favorable for diversified real and digital asset exposure. We see fintech growth and cross-border finance integration signaling structural shifts in capital flows. Oil and gas markets remain balanced as OPEC+ and U.S. output adapt to demand changes. Bitcoin’s ETF-driven reinvigoration and strong performance underscore its role as a portfolio diversifier. Most notably, physical gold’s strong central bank demand, pricing dislocations, and its role amid multipolar currency trends align with IGA’s strategic allocation model, which favors integrating bullion-backed credit solutions and private structural placements into client portfolios.

Key Dates Ahead

• July 9: U.S. Tariff deadline

• July 14–16: Bloomberg Green Summit, Seattle

• July 30: FOMC meeting

• End-July: PCE release and OPEC+ review

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