IGA Capital Weekly Market Update
- Joshua Hawley
- Sep 15
- 2 min read
Joshua Hawley
Sept 15, 2025
For the week beginning September 15, 2025, markets experienced a rally in equities, while sovereign bond yields saw a decline, reflecting shifting expectations for monetary policy. The latest economic data and market forecasts provide a nuanced view of the current financial landscape.
Market Overview
U.S. equity markets saw solid performance. The S&P 500 saw a gain of 1.7% over the last month. The Dow Jones rose by 1.5% over the same period, and the Nasdaq jumped 2.0%.
Market expectations for future Federal Reserve policy are shifting, with the probability for the Fed Funds Rate to be in the 4.00-4.25% range for the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting increasing to 96.4% from 89.0% the previous week. The market is pricing in a series of future rate cuts, with the implied policy rate projected to drop to 3.03% by July 29, 2026.
Fixed Income and Sovereign Yields
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at 4.06%, a decrease of 26 basis points (bps) over the past month. The yield curve is steepening, with the 2s/10s Treasury spread at 0.51% and the 5s/30s spread at 1.06% as of September 15, 2025. Other sovereign bond yields as of April 28, 2025, were: Canada at 3.18%, Germany at 2.69%, Japan at 1.56%, and Australia at 4.27%. The 1M Term SOFR is at 4.15% as of September 15, 2025.
Commodities and Digital Assets
The gold market continued its strong performance this week, with its price increasing to $3,644.72 as of September 15, 2025. This represents a 9.2% rise over the last month and a 90.7% rise over the last two years. Silver also performed exceptionally well, reaching $42.19, a 10.9% increase over the last month. Oil prices remain relatively stable, at $62.87, a marginal decrease of 0.3% over the last month. As of September 15, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $114,828.60.
Inflation and Economic Data
Key inflation measures present a mixed picture. The U.S. annualized Headline CPI is 2.90% as of August 2025, up from 2.70% the previous month. Core CPI remains steady at 3.10%. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) is 2.10%, and the unemployment rate is at 4.30%.
IGA Capital Perspective
The markets are currently navigating a complex environment, where the strength in equities is being watched against shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The significant rally in precious metals highlights a continued demand for safe-haven assets, while the stability of key inflation metrics provides a degree of confidence. We continue to prioritize a data-driven approach to identify and capitalize on opportunities, particularly in project finance and trade-linked funding, where our expertise is most valuable in such a dynamic landscape.
Footnotes and Disclosures:
Source: Bloomberg
Sources: Walker & Dunlop
Data on Fed Funds Rate Target Probabilities: CME Group
Information on Bitcoin: Publicly available financial data and market analysis.
Comments