IGA Capital Weekly Markets Update
- Joshua Hawley
- Sep 9
- 2 min read
Joshua Hawley
9.9.2025
For the week beginning September 8, 2025, markets continued to exhibit mixed signals, with strong performances in equities juxtaposed with shifting expectations for monetary policy. The latest economic data and market forecasts provide a nuanced view of the current financial landscape.
Market Overview
U.S. equity markets saw solid performance for the week ending September 8, 2025. The S&P 500 saw a gain of 2.0% over the last month. The Dow Jones rose by 3.1% over the same period, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.8%. Market expectations for future Federal Reserve policy are shifting, with the implied policy rate projected to drop to 3.03% by July 29, 2026. The probability for the Fed Funds Rate to be in the 4.00-4.25% range for the September 17, 2025 FOMC meeting has decreased to 89.0% from 92.3% the previous week.
Fixed Income and Sovereign Yields
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at 4.09%, a decrease of 20 basis points (bps) over the past month. As of September 8, 2025, the 2s/10s Treasury spread is 0.58% and the 5s/30s spread is 1.19%. Other sovereign bond yields as of April 28, 2025, were: Canada at 3.26%, Germany at 2.66%, Japan at 1.56%, and Australia at 4.28%. The 1M Term SOFR is at 4.22% as of September 8, 2025.
Commodities and Digital Assets
The gold market continued its strong performance this week, with its price increasing to $3,611.25 as of September 8, 2025, a 6.1% rise over the last month and an 88.1% rise over the last two years. Silver also performed exceptionally well, reaching $41.15, a 7.5% increase over the last month and a 79.1% increase over the last two years. Oil prices, however, remain relatively stable at $63.12, a marginal increase of 0.2% over the last month. As of September 8, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $111,142.38, showing a slight fluctuation throughout the day. Analysts note that Bitcoin has been consolidating near resistance levels, with long-term holders continuing to accumulate despite debates around a potential correction. This resilient institutional buying and fresh liquidity from stable-coins, along with hopes of U.S. rate cuts, are signaling a bullish mid-term outlook for the sector.
Inflation and Economic Data
Key inflation measures present a mixed picture. The U.S. annualized Headline CPI is 2.70%, unchanged from the previous month, while Core CPI remains steady at 3.10%. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) is 2.10%, and the unemployment rate is at 4.30%.
IGA Capital Perspective
The markets are currently navigating a complex environment, where the strength in equities is being watched against shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The significant rally in precious metals highlights a continued demand for safe-haven assets, while the stability of key inflation metrics provides a degree of confidence. We continue to prioritize a data-driven approach to identify and capitalize on opportunities, particularly in project finance and trade-linked funding, where our expertise is most valuable in such a dynamic landscape.
Footnotes and Disclosures:
Source: Bloomberg
Sources: Walker & Dunlop
Data on Fed Funds Rate Target Probabilities: CME Group
Information on Bitcoin: Publicly available financial data and market analysis.
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