IGA Capital Weekly Markets Update
- Joshua Hawley
- Sep 23
- 3 min read
Joshua Hawley
September 23rd, 2025
Market Overview
U.S. equity markets saw solid performance. The S&P 500 gained 4.4% over the last month, closing at 6,664. The Dow Jones rose by 3.0% over the same period, reaching 46,315.3, and the Nasdaq jumped 7.1%, finishing at 22,631.
Market expectations for future Federal Reserve policy are shifting, with the probability for the Fed Funds Rate to be in the 3.75%-4.00% range for the October 29, 2025 FOMC meeting increasing to 91.9% from 81.0% the previous week. The market is pricing in a series of future rate cuts, with the implied policy rate projected to drop to 3.03% by September 16, 2026.
Dubai Real estate continues to explode, however rents seem to be hitting peak and starting to come down in certain areas of the city.
Fixed Income and Sovereign Yields
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at 4.13%, a decrease of 13 basis points (bps) over the past month. The yield curve is steepening, with the 2s/10s Treasury spread at 0.56% and the 5s/30s spread at 1.07% as of September 22, 2025. Other sovereign bond yields as of April 28, 2025, were: Canada at 3.20%, Germany at 2.74%, Japan at 1.63%, and Australia at 4.26%. The 1M Term SOFR is at 4.14% as of September 22, 2025.
Commodities and Digital Assets
The gold market continued its strong performance this week, with its price increasing to $3,723.44 as of September 22, 2025. This represents a 11.5% rise over the last month and a 93.9% rise over the last two years. Silver also performed exceptionally well, reaching $43.70, a 14.6% increase over the last month and an 86.8% increase over the last two years. Oil prices remain relatively stable at $63.04, a marginal decrease of 0.7% over the last month.
The cryptocurrency market saw significant liquidations this week, as Bitcoin briefly dipped below $112,000. As of September 23, 2025, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $113,028. The market decline triggered a staggering $1.5 billion in liquidations, affecting over 407,000 traders. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 43, entering "Fear" territory after weeks of neutral sentiment, despite a recent Federal Reserve rate cut. Market experts cite macro uncertainty, overvalued assets, and reduced liquidity as key factors, with upcoming U.S. economic data likely to determine the future direction.
Inflation and Economic Data
Key inflation measures present a mixed picture. The U.S. annualized Headline CPI is 2.90% as of August 2025, up from 2.70% the previous month. Core CPI remains steady at 3.10%. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) is 2.10%, and the unemployment rate is at 4.30%.
IGA Capital Perspective
Global Tensions in the Middle East are increasing after the attack by Israel on Qatar. Trump announced plans to re-open Bagram Airforce Base on the back of rumors the Saudis will no longer allow US Air Support for Israel from it's airspace. Arab states are re-evaluating their relationships while the US shows no intention of diplomatic solutions between Israel and Palestine. This is in the face of increasing NATO tension with the United States regarding Ukraine and the US threats to leave NATO. NATO spending is said to be $1.3 Trillion in 2025. Pressure continues from the US toward EU countries including Switzerland to demonitize larger denomination currency notes in favor of dollars. USD paper 100 dollar circulation is the largest physical currency in circulation on planet earth with 90% of those dollars existing outside the United States. Thailand abruptly shut down 3 million bank accounts overnight. There is a general trend out of cash currently into real estate and physical gold. We think this will continue into Q1 26'.
Footnotes and Disclosures:
Source: Bloomberg
Sources: Walker & Dunlop
Data on Fed Funds Rate Target Probabilities: CME Group
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