IGA Weekly Market Update

Monday, November 10, 2025

The Price of Time and Market Expectations

The market's anticipation of future central bank action continues to influence the price of credit. The Federal Funds Rate Effective currently stands at 3.87%. However, the futures market suggests a strong expectation of monetary loosening, pricing in a steady sequence of rate reductions throughout the coming year.

FOMC Meeting Date	Implied Policy Rate	Implied Rate Change
12/10/2025	3.71% 3	-0.17%
03/18/2026	3.50% 5	-0.38% 6
07/29/2026	3.20% 7	-0.67% 8

This implied policy trajectory results in a downward-sloping yield structure across short-term indices, reflecting the market’s forced forward-pricing based on perceived intervention necessity. The current 10-Year Treasury yield is 4.13%, and the latest Bloomberg survey median forecast aligns closely with this level, projecting 4.10% for Q4 2025. The disparity between analyst estimates and actual implied forward yields underscores the uncertainty regarding the true, unmanipulated cost of long-term capital.

Gulf Capital Allocation and Economic Facts

Decoupling from Fiat Instability

The United Arab Emirates presents a region of comparative monetary and fiscal prudence, with economic growth primarily driven by sound domestic capital formation outside the hydrocarbon sector.

• Real Economic Growth: Dubai's real GDP expanded by a robust 4.7% year-over-year in Q2 2025. Key sectors demonstrating vigorous capital application include construction (14.9% y/y) and finance and insurance (7.7% y/y). The Central Bank of the UAE projects the nation's overall real GDP expansion to reach 4.9% for 2025.

  
  

• Price Stability: Annualized inflation for the UAE was remarkably contained at 0.6% in Q2 2025, with the 2025 forecast adjusted downward to 1.5%. This contrasts sharply with the annualized CPI in the United States, which currently stands at 3.00%.

  
  

• Capital Market Performance: Investor confidence remains high, with the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) Index recording a 35.6% increase year-over-year in Q2 2025.

  
  

The Revaluation of Real Wealth

The current spot price for Gold is $4,080.40 per ounce. This continuous upward revaluation of the monetary metal against paper currencies signals pervasive doubts regarding the long-term solvency of unbacked sovereign debt and the integrity of fiat systems.

African Resources: Physical Capital Concentration

The Critical Mineral Supply Gap

Africa represents an indispensable source of the physical capital required for future global infrastructure and technology. The concentration of critical minerals (those essential to the global energy transition) is unparalleled.

• Structural Demand: The global market for copper is facing a structural supply deficit, with projections indicating a shortfall of 30% by 2035.

  
  

• Strategic Deployment: Recent capital commitments underscore the critical nature of these assets:

  • Zambia: Vedanta Resources has dedicated $1.5 billion toward copper expansion at the Konkola mine.

    
    

  • Angola: The nation has initiated its first major copper project, the Tetelo mine, requiring $250 million in development financing.

    
    

• Jurisdictional Significance: Beyond base metals, regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) hold strategic significance for resources such as coltan (tantalum), cobalt, and lithium. The investment focus remains on acquiring claims on physical resources and developing local value-addition infrastructure.