IGA Capital Weekly Macros

Over the past week, global markets have navigated significant macroeconomic shifts driven by geopolitical developments in the Middle East, fluctuating interest rates, and sector-specific earnings. Energy markets remain volatile with crude oil trading between $72 and $106 per barrel amid supply chain adaptations and inventory drawdowns, while benchmark interest rates hold steady with 1-Month Term SOFR at 3.92% and overnight SOFR at 3.90%. Meanwhile, equity markets have seen mixed performance as investors digest bond yield shifts—with the 10-Year Treasury easing near 5.30%—balanced by strong earnings performance in the technology and semiconductor sectors.

1. Middle East & Global Energy Markets

• Middle East Oil Exports & Supply Dynamics: According to reports by Bloomberg and analysis from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, Gulf oil exports have seen stabilization and recovery through escorted transits and alternative logistical routes. However, global commercial oil inventories have fallen by over 500 million barrels since February, maintaining a thin buffer against potential supply disruptions.

  
  

• Commodity Price Volatility: Crude oil prices continue to experience heightened volatility—trading between $72 and $106/barrel in recent sessions—driven by geopolitical uncertainties surrounding regional transit corridors, US naval deployments in the region, and shipping security.

  
  

• Energy Infrastructure Shifts: Supply chains continue to adapt; Saudi Aramco redirected crude flows through alternative internal infrastructure (including the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu) following earlier regional pipeline disruptions.

  
  

2. Interest Rates & Benchmark SOFR Pricing

(Data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, CME Group, and St. Louis Fed)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)

• Overnight SOFR: 3.90% (As of September 30, 2026 / Published October 1, 2026)

  
  

• 30-Day Compounded Average SOFR: 3.75414%

  
  

• 90-Day Compounded Average SOFR: 3.68473%

  
  

• 180-Day Compounded Average SOFR: 3.67646%

  
  

• Daily Repo Volume Underlying SOFR: $3.2 Trillion

  
  

CME Term SOFR Rates

• 1-Month CME Term SOFR: 3.91522%

  
  

• 3-Month CME Term SOFR: 4.09580%

  
  

• 6-Month CME Term SOFR: 4.28075%

  
  

• 12-Month CME Term SOFR: 4.60371%

  
  

3. Global Equities & Financial Markets

• Global Equity Volatility: Tech and major market indices faced downward pressure, with the S&P 500 falling 1.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average experiencing a drop of over 1,100 points (-2.2%) in recent sessions, driven by volatility in AI tech stocks and shifting interest rate expectations.

  
  

• International Equity Movements: Mixed performance across global hubs, with Japan's Nikkei 225 contracting ~1.5% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 2.0%.

  
  

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