IGA Capital Weekly Macros

Nov 3rd, 2026

Tech Rout & Market Breadth

October marked the steepest monthly decline for technology equities since March 2025, driven by mounting skepticism over AI capital expenditures. The Nasdaq 100 tumbled 6.6% on the month, briefly dipping 10% below its prior peak into correction territory. The selloff remained concentrated within mega-cap tech: while the cap-weighted S&P 500 fell 1.3% on the week and slipped through its 100-day moving average, the equal-weighted S&P 500 managed a 0.5% gain. Small caps demonstrated defensive rotation, lifting the Russell 2000 up 0.9% ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections.   

Earnings prints amplified late-week pressure. Alphabet plunged more than 10%—its steepest single-day decline on record—following deceleration in search advertising revenue and a second straight quarter of negative free cash flow. Intel dropped nearly 30%, logging its sharpest single-session retreat since late 1982 after cutting Q4 revenue guidance. With leading technology firms increasingly financing record capex cycles through debt issuance rather than operating cash flow, market consensus warns that persistent rate pressures, trade frictions, and elevated energy inputs will constrain broader S&P 500 margin expansion heading into 2027.

Energy & Geopolitics

Brent crude closed the week up 1.6% at $118/bbl, nearly doubling year-to-date as geopolitical friction along the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt maritime crude flows. Tehran maintains a bifurcated posture: Iran’s Supreme Leader directed military forces to prepare for expanded regional retaliation "without geographical limitations," while diplomatic channels termed recent U.S. communications a constructive step forward. Escalation risks remain front and center following reports of direct security consultations between President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ahead of potential post-election military operations. Bernstein models an upside price band of $120–$150/bbl against chronic structural deficits, underscored by Saudi Aramco’s warning of depleted global crude inventories. Tuesday’s U.S. midterms inject political friction into the equation, as a divided Congress could circumscribe White House authority over defense funding and regional military engagements.

Key Economic Indicators & Calendar

The upcoming schedule transitions from manufacturing surveys to critical labor and inflation data:

• This Week:

  
  

  • Monday, 11/2: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI; ISM Manufacturing

    
    

  • Tuesday, 11/3: JOLTS Job Openings; Durable Goods Orders; U.S. Midterm Elections

    
    

  • Wednesday, 11/4: ADP Employment; U.S. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement; U.S. Trade Balance; S&P Global US Services PMI; ISM Services

    
    

  • Thursday, 11/5: Initial Jobless Claims

    
    

  • Friday, 11/6: Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (Consensus: +65k / 4.2%); U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment   

    
    

• Next Week:

  
  

  • Wholesale Inventories; NFIB Small Business Optimism; Consumer Price Index (CPI); 10-Year U.S. Treasury Auction; Veterans Day (Bond & Equity Markets Closed); Initial Jobless Claims; Producer Price Index (PPI).

    
    

U.S. Treasuries & Fixed Income Dynamics

U.S. government debt rallied across the curve last week as tech weakness spurred duration demand and the FOMC refrained from delivering an overt hawkish surprise. The 10-year Treasury yield, which briefly pierced 5.02% ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision, retraced sharply to an intraday trough of 4.89% on Friday before settling the week at 4.93% (down more than 40 bps from its October 5 highs). The Bloomberg Treasury Index returned 2.4% in October, marking its best monthly advance since early 2025.   

Curve dynamics shifted noticeably: the 2-year yield fell over 9 bps to close at 4.59%, while the 30-year yield held firm at 5.31%, steepening the 2s30s spread by 8 bps. Citigroup anticipates the Treasury will moderate issuance sizing in long-tenor bonds at Wednesday’s refunding announcement, which would relieve technical supply indigestion at the back end. Even so, structural supply headwinds persist. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem reiterated that large-scale U.S. deficit financing amid resilient growth continues to place a floor under sovereign borrowing costs, while institutional investors highlight diminished foreign sovereign appetite from China and Japan.   

Tenor / Benchmark	Current Yield / Level	1-Month Ago	Historical Trend
Fed Funds Effective	3.88%	3.88%	+0 bps MoM
1-Month Term SOFR	3.90%	3.91%	-1 bps MoM
30-Day Average SOFR	3.94%	3.88%	+6 bps MoM
1-Month T-Bill	3.97%	3.93%	+4 bps MoM
2-Year Treasury	4.59%	~4.68%	-9 bps WoW
10-Year Treasury	4.92%	5.27%	-35 bps MoM
10-Year SOFR Swap Rate	4.53%	4.87%	-33 bps MoM
2s/10s Spread	+32 bps	+71 bps (Jan '26)	Flattening vs. early 2026

Monetary Policy & Fed Path

The FOMC held the benchmark target range steady at 3.75%–4.00% in a 10–2 split, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 bp hike. Governor Cook’s dissent proved notable, representing her first departure from the consensus core this year and signaling expanding support for renewed tightening. Chair Warsh maintained deliberate ambiguity regarding the December meeting, framing current policy as an information-gathering pause while the committee evaluates disinflation progress toward 2.0%.   

Warsh also revealed an operational framework restructuring—the "forward silence" policy—under which the Fed will scale back rate-setting sessions to seven meetings in 2027 and six in 2028. Intervening sessions will be reserved for macro strategy reviews without formal rate

votes, rate statements, or Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) updates.

Hawkish commentary followed the post-meeting blackout lift. Dallas Fed President Logan emphasized that additional tightening is required to return price stability, and St. Louis Fed President Musalem advocated for near-term firming. Richmond Fed President Barkin supported a measured, gradual approach. Markets currently reflect substantial conviction for a December adjustment:

• Implied Overnight Rate: 3.882%

  
  

• December 9, 2026 FOMC: 4.064% implied (70.7% probability of 4.00%–4.25% target range)   

  
  

• June 9, 2027 FOMC: 4.426% implied   

  
  

• December 8, 2027 FOMC: 4.434% implied

  
  

Friday's October nonfarm payrolls report (consensus +65k; 4.2% unemployment) represents the decisive variable for year-end policy. A print meeting or topping expectations reinforces the case for a 25 bp hike in December, while an unexpected contraction would grant the committee room to extend its pause.   

For commercial financing inquiries, scenario modeling, or debt structuring requests, please contact the IGA Capital team directly. info@iga.capital