IGA Capital Weekly Market Update

Week of June 30, 2025

Joshua Hawley

Global Market Summary

Global markets advanced into the second half of the year buoyed by easing inflation signals and sustained momentum in equity indices. The S&P 500 rallied 4.6% over the month to 6,173, with the Nasdaq surging 6% and the Dow Jones up 3.9%. These gains reflect continued investor confidence in U.S. corporate earnings and optimism around upcoming rate cuts. Bond markets echoed this sentiment—10-year Treasury yields declined 15 bps to 4.25% amid improving inflation data, with PCE coming in at 2.68% YoY and Core CPI at 2.80%. Forward rate curves and swap markets now imply significant easing by Q1 2026. Internationally, sovereign yields fell in the UK (-16 bps) and Australia (-10 bps), while Japan remained stable. Currency volatility favored the dollar, especially against the euro and pound. Gold edged down slightly to $3,286, while silver gained 8.3%, tracking with inflation hedge demand. Oil posted a strong 8.7% monthly jump to $65.40/bbl on rising summer travel and a weaker dollar.

Digital Asset Markets

Bitcoin remains range-bound above the psychological $100,000 threshold as institutional inflows balance global uncertainty. With ETF demand supporting a positive structure, BTC remains the anchor in the digital asset class for both institutional hedging and long-term speculative allocation. Key volatility catalysts remain macro-driven, including dollar strength, real rates, and sovereign monetary policy. At press time, the live BTC price feed reflects:

Macro Trends to Watch

• Fed Futures now price in a 65–90% likelihood of rate cuts by year-end.

• Forward curves anticipate the 10Y UST dropping below 4.00% in Q1 2026.

• Real estate remains mixed: Residential REITs saw declines, while Mortgage REITs held steady.

• PCE and CPI inflation metrics show consistent disinflation, giving the Fed flexibility.

  

Key Dates Ahead:

• July 3: Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Data

• July 9: 10yr Treasury Auction

• July 30: FOMC Meeting

• July 31: PCE Inflation Report

IGA Perspective: Physical Gold in Focus

As central banks navigate disinflation with caution and sovereign credit risks intensify globally, physical gold remains a core anchor for preserving real value. From IGA Capital’s perspective, the recent pullback in gold to the $3,280–$3,300 range is technically constructive and strategically underpriced relative to long-term macro trends. Central bank demand—particularly from emerging markets—continues at historic highs, with the World Gold Council reporting Q1 2025 central bank purchases at 290 tonnes, the strongest first-quarter accumulation on record. Institutional portfolios are simultaneously recalibrating toward hard assets as expectations for declining real yields grow—reflected in falling 10-year breakeven inflation rates and dovish forward guidance from the Fed.

The dislocation between ETF outflows and rising physical premiums highlights a growing divergence in market sentiment: ETF gold holdings fell by 2% in Q2 2025, while physical gold premiums in Asia rose by 3–5%, driven by private wealth and central bank accumulation . This reflects a shift in preference toward allocated metal amid declining trust in synthetic instruments. Furthermore, with fiscal sustainability under strain in Western economies and a trend toward non-dollar commodity settlement among BRICS-aligned nations, we see gold benefiting from a repositioning of global reserves strategy.

#IGACapital #Gold #BTC #Markets #SOFR #Equities #DOW #Treasuries #Bonds #Nasdaq #BRICS #Silver #Oil #ETF

Footnotes:

• World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q1 2025, https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/q1-2025 ↩

• Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE ↩

• Reuters, “Asia Gold Premiums Rise on Firm Demand; Global ETF Holdings Decline”, July 2025; Bloomberg Terminal Data, Gold ETF Flow Tracker ↩

• International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability Report, May 2025, and recent reporting on BRICS settlement strategies in commodities (Reuters, June 2025) ↩