IGA Capital Weekly Markets Update
- Joshua Hawley
- Sep 2
- 2 min read
September 2, 2025
Joshua Hawley
Equity markets continue to show strength with major U.S. indices climbing, while fixed income markets and key economic indicators signaled ongoing complexity. The latest data provides insight into market expectations for future Federal Reserve policy and the performance of various asset classes.
Market Overview
The S&P 500 saw a gain of 2.8% over the last month, the Dow Jones rose by 4.0% over the same period, and the Nasdaq jumped 3.0%. The market is pricing in a series of future rate cuts, with the implied policy rate projected to drop to 3.17% by July 29, 2026. This is lower than the Federal Reserve's own dot plot projection of 3.375% for year-end 2026. For the upcoming September 17, 2025, FOMC meeting, there is a 92.3% implied probability that the Fed Funds Rate will be in the 4.00%-4.25% range.
Fixed Income and Sovereign Yields
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently at 4.28%. It has decreased by 7 bps over the past month and is up 38 bps over the last year. The 2s/10s Treasury spread is at 0.63% and the 5s/30s spread is at 1.23% as of September 2, 2025, which indicates a steepening yield curve. The 1M Term SOFR is at 4.27% as of September 2, 2025. Other sovereign bond yields as of April 28, 2025, were: Canada at 3.37%, Germany at 2.78%, Japan at 1.61%, and Australia at 4.35%.
Commodities and Digital Assets
The gold market continued its strong performance, with its price increasing to $3,480.66 as of September 2, 2025, representing a 38.1% rise over the last year. Silver also performed exceptionally well, reaching $40.45, a 37.4% increase year-over-year. Oil prices, however, fell by 3.4% over the past month to $65.90.
Analysts note that Bitcoin has been consolidating in the $107,000–$109,000 range after a recent dip, with strong support at the $105,000–$108,000 zone. Institutional flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs remain resilient, signaling a bullish mid-term outlook for the sector.
Inflation and Economic Data
Key inflation measures present a mixed picture. The U.S. annualized Core CPI is at 3.10% for July 2025, up from 2.90% in June. The Headline CPI remains steady at 2.70%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a significant one-month increase of 0.90%, reaching 3.30% in July. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) is 2.10%, with the unemployment rate at 4.20%.
IGA Capital Perspective
The markets are currently navigating a complex environment. The combination of strong equity performance and rising bond yields highlights a tug-of-war between growth optimism and lingering inflation concerns. We continue to prioritize a data-driven approach to identify and capitalize on opportunities, particularly in UAE Real Estate, emerging market project finance and global trade-linked funding, where our expertise is most valuable in such a dynamic landscape.
Footnotes and Disclosures:
Source: Bloomberg
Sources: Walker & Dunlop
Data on Fed Funds Rate Target Probabilities: CME Group
Information on Bitcoin: The Economic Times, CoinSwitch Markets Desk
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