IGA Capital Weekly Market Update – March 25, 2025
- Joshua Hawley
- Mar 24
- 3 min read
Updated: Mar 25
Economic Overview
Market sentiment remains focused on inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s rate path, as investors digest recent CPI and PPI figures along with shifting Fed expectations. Both headline and core CPI were in line with expectations, with headline inflation at 2.8% YoY and core CPI at 3.3% YoY. The data supports a cautious Fed stance, with rate cut expectations still uncertain heading into Q2 2025.
The bond market saw significant volatility last week as 10-year Treasury yields ended at 4.28%, down 15 bps from the previous week. Fed funds futures indicate that markets are pricing in at least 50-75 bps of rate cuts by year-end, though FOMC members remain divided on the pace and timing of easing.
The real estate sector is experiencing continued pressure from higher rates, particularly in commercial real estate (CRE) financing, while multifamily housing remains stable, supported by strong rental demand and agency-backed lending activity.
Key Market Events This Week
March 26 – Durable Goods Orders
March 27 – Q4 GDP Final Estimate, Initial Jobless Claims, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing
March 28 – Personal Income & Spending, PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation measure), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Treasury & Credit Markets
Treasury Yields (as of March 24, 2025)
Maturity | Yield | Weekly Change |
2-Year | 4.11% | -12 bps |
5-Year | 4.05% | -18 bps |
10-Year | 4.28% | -15 bps |
30-Year | 4.62% | -14 bps |
The Treasury curve remains inverted, reflecting ongoing recessionary concerns.
Fed funds futures now imply a 4.28% rate by May and 3.62% by December, suggesting 2-3 cuts by year-end.
Agency Loan Pricing (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac)
Term | Fannie Mae (Tier 2 LTV) | Freddie Mac (Standard LTV) |
5 Years | 5.64% - 5.94% | N/A |
7 Years | 5.61% - 5.91% | 5.70% - 5.85% |
10 Years | 5.65% - 5.95% | 5.64% - 5.79% |
15 Years | 5.79% - 6.09% | 5.79% - 5.94% |
Multifamily loan pricing remains stable, though spreads are widening due to rate volatility.
Floating rate loans require custom pricing—most agency lenders have paused publishing DUS ARM products.
REIT Performance (Key Observations)
Multifamily REITs like AvalonBay (AVB) and Equity Residential (EQR) saw modest declines amid rising rent control discussions.
Mortgage REITs remain under pressure, with Annaly (NLY) and AGNC (AGNC) posting double-digit dividend yields but facing rate risk.
Storage REITs like Public Storage (PSA) and Extra Space Storage (EXR) continue to show stable performance.
Outlook for Borrowers & Investors
Interest Rate Forecasts: Market participants are split on how aggressive the Fed will be in cutting rates, but borrowing costs are expected to remain elevated in the near term.
CRE & Debt Markets: Loan spreads remain wide, and refinancing remains challenging for highly leveraged borrowers.
Investment Strategy: With rates expected to gradually decline, investors should focus on structured financing options and opportunities in resilient asset classes such as multifamily and industrial real estate.
IGA Capital’s Role
IGA Capital specializes in structuring financing solutions across multiple sectors, including real estate, energy, infrastructure, and tech. With access to global banks, private credit funds, and family offices, we provide customized capital solutions that fit the evolving market landscape.
If your business is seeking structured financing solutions of $10M or more, contact us to discuss how IGA Capital can navigate today’s capital markets on your behalf.
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