Mar 2, 2026 Good evening from Dubai, War lands in UAE. And apart from a few big 'booms' our staff and families are thankfully safe and sound, albeit forced to stay on the ground with airspace currently closed. As of Sunday March 1st, the UAE Ministry of Defense reports 165 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles, 541 drones in two days, the majority of which were intercepted and destroyed. Meanwhile the pool is still open and the weather is great! JP Morgan is predicting a 10%

Export Credit Agency (ECA) financing plays a pivotal role in supporting large-scale projects across African markets. These financial instruments enable global firms to undertake complex ventures by mitigating risks and providing long-term capital solutions. In this post, I will explore various ECA financing scenarios in Africa, illustrating how these mechanisms facilitate infrastructure development, energy projects, and industrial growth. Understanding these examples will hel

Export Credit Agency (ECA) finance plays a pivotal role in supporting large-scale projects across emerging markets, particularly in Africa. As a strategic financial partner, I have observed how ECA finance enables global firms to navigate complex transactions, mitigate risks, and secure long-term capital for infrastructure, energy, and industrial developments. This post explores the core benefits of ECA finance in Africa, provides key examples, and offers insights into how it

Good Afternoon from Dubai, The market displayed a remarkable resilience this week, absorbing a significant confluence of macro and geopolitical volatility. Despite persistent de-risking in the AI trade, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and a market-shaping Supreme Court ruling on US tariffs, the S&P 500 closed the week up 0.7%—its strongest performance since early January—with the Nasdaq 100 also climbing 1.6%. The bond market, however, struggled with increased uncerta

Feb 19th, 2026 Bangkok Thailand Good morning, good afternoon and good evening depending where you are in the world. Equities experienced a volatile week as "AI-related angst" triggered aggressive selling across multiple sectors, leading to a "sell first, ask questions later" mentality. The resulting "AI Scare Trade" prompted a broad deleveraging across assets, with a risk-off move that saw investors pile into safe-haven Treasuries. Nasdaq: The Nasdaq 100 moved lower on the w

Feb 13th, 2026 Joshua Hawley Markets last week shifted into a pronounced "risk-off" mode, driven by AI-related tech stock selling and a cascade of weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data. This led to a brief "flight to safety" into U.S. Treasuries, driving yields sharply lower before markets found their footing on Friday, resulting in a broad relief rally. U.S. indices endured significant volatility during the week of February 9, 2026: The S&P 500 slid 2.6% from Monday

Date: February 3, 2026 (Data as of February 2, 2026) Good morning from Dubai! The market experienced a soft end to the week despite equities initially reaching new highs. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates, coupled with concerns over Big Tech earnings and an unexpected hawkish-leaning Fed Chair nomination, spurred a notable risk-off tone. The Treasury yield curve steepened, while precious metals and crypto saw a sharp sell-off. Attention now turns to the crucial Ja

Date: Wednesday, January 7, 2026 I. Monetary Conditions and Interbank Rates As of early January 2026, major central bank benchmarks and interbank rates reflect the following levels: Federal Funds Rate: The effective Federal Funds Rate remains at 3.64% . SOFR (United States): The 30-Day Average Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is 3.747% , while the 90-Day Average stands at 3.984% . EIBOR (UAE): The 3-Month Emirates Interbank Offered Rate (EIBOR) is fixed at 3.629% .

Date: Monday, December 29, 2025 I. 2025 Global Macroeconomic Recap The 2025 economic landscape was characterized by a gradual moderation in inflation and divergent growth paths across major economies. Growth Outlook: Global real GDP growth is estimated at 3.0% for 2025. Advanced economies faced a sharper slowdown, averaging 1.5% growth. Inflationary Trends: Global headline inflation is projected to have fallen to 4.2% in 2025 from 5.7% in 2024. II. Global Equity Indice

Structural Analysis: Monetary Expectations and Asset Class Dispersion Date: Monday, December 1, 2025 I. Monetary Policy and Global Interbank Dynamics The Federal Reserve's observed stance remains within the established range, with the Fed Funds Rate Effective registering 3.88% as of the reporting date, denoting a minor +2 basis point (bps) appreciation over the prior month [5]. This stability contrasts with the persistent forward pricing of an imminent easing cycle across

Structural Liquidity and Asset De-risking Date: Monday, November 24, 2025 I. Global Liquidity and Interbank Funding Rates The current environment continues to reflect significant fragmentation in the cost of credit across key global jurisdictions, juxtaposed with forward expectations of monetary easing in the US. Benchmark Index Current Rate Date of Fix Jurisdiction Source Fed Funds Rate Effective 3.88% 24-Nov-25 United States [5] 1M Term SOFR 3.954% 24-Nov-25 United States

Tuesday, November 18, 2025 I. Global Liquidity Structure and The Price of Credit The Federal Reserve's primary intervention mechanism, the Fed Funds Rate Effective , registers at 3.88% , reflecting a 23 basis point (bps) decline over the one-month period [cite: 5, 13]. Market expectations, derived from the futures complex, project persistent monetary loosening through the subsequent year, with the Implied Policy Rate falling to 3.26% by the July 29, 2026, FOMC meeting [cite

Monday, November 10, 2025 The Price of Time and Market Expectations The market's anticipation of future central bank action continues to influence the price of credit. The Federal Funds Rate Effective currently stands at 3.87% . However, the futures market suggests a strong expectation of monetary loosening, pricing in a steady sequence of rate reductions throughout the coming year. FOMC Meeting Date Implied Policy Rate Implied Rate Change 12/10/2025 3.71% 3 -0.17% 03/18/2

The Illusion of Stability: Policy Rates, Credit Expansion, and the Fiat Mirage The market's persistent reliance on centrally planned monetary accommodation has driven forward rates into territory that is structurally misaligned with the economic reality of credit risk and inflationary pressure. The current environment is a predictable consequence of discretionary monetary intervention, creating a financial landscape defined by artificially low capital costs and signaling the

WEEK OF OCTOBER 27, 2025 The Inflationary Nexus of Risk and Decelerating Growth The market equilibrium for the Week of October 27, 2025, is defined by an accelerating divergence between risk-on equity performance and structural stress in the leveraged credit sector. The primary analytical challenge remains synthesizing the high-velocity surge in precious metals with softening consumer demand forecasts. Global Macro and Forward Rate Path The consensus view for a soft landing

WEEK OF OCTOBER 20, 2025 A Decelerating Global Rate Cycle Meets UAE's Exceptional Liquidity The global financial landscape this week reaffirms the bifurcation of capital flows , with policy-sensitive Western markets embedding aggressive rate cuts while commodity-backed regional economies maintain superior liquidity and lending stability. The fundamental thesis of the 2025 de-rate cycle continues to unfold, providing a sustained tailwind for asset valuations and structured de

For the week beginning October 13, 2025, global markets showed continued strength in equity and commodity valuations, while fixed income stability reinforces a period of measured optimism. The core focus remains on the trajectory of global rates and the unique investment environment in the UAE. United Arab Emirates (UAE) Market & CRE The UAE market presents a highly liquid and competitive environment for real estate funding. EIBOR Pricing: The local benchmark EIBOR remains

For the week beginning October 6, 2025 , markets experienced strong growth in global equities, supported by continued market consensus...

Tue Sept 30, 2025 Joshua Hawley Washington lunacy continues as the US Federal government shutdown looms, with apparently the real...

Joshua Hawley September 23rd, 2025 Market Overview U.S. equity markets saw solid performance. The S&P 500 gained 4.4% over the last...